Recently, the prices of raw materials in the household industry have risen. In addition, packaging cartons and freight rates have also increased. For enterprises, the cost of production and sales has increased, and the debate about the rise in the price of household products is endless. Here, the market has formed a bullish theory and a non-incremental theory. According to industry insiders, the rise in prices of household products depends on the market conditions around the Spring Festival.
The home market "sounds up" will see the next spring! (Image source network)
The home market is "sounding"
By visiting the market, many merchants tell consumers: “The price of home will be raised soon. If you buy it as soon as possible, it will be more expensive after the Spring Festival.†Some merchants said that they have received the price adjustment notice and the price increase after the Spring Festival. . After the reporters summarized the visits, they found that in the home market, the price increase of sofas and finished products was higher, and the reasons for the price increase provided by the merchants were basically the same, that is, the prices of raw materials rose sharply, causing the manufacturers to raise the price of the products. In this case, the dealer must raise the price of the home in order to guarantee the profit.
In fact, the call for price increases in household products was once in October 2016. At that time, a "friendship reminder" widely spread in the WeChat circle of friends caused people's attention. The "Reminder" said that "the price increase of household products has become a fact", the picture is a picture of CCTV news broadcast, the news headline "Home Industry Association said, will continue to increase prices!" Later, this "remind" The confirmed message was false and the picture was forged. However, at the time, some enterprises did issue a price adjustment notice, but due to the double 11 promotion season, the price increase was somewhat out of date, so it was not implemented. As for the price rumors, there are two kinds of "sounds" in the industry. One thinks that the price increase is sufficient, and the other thinks that there will be no substantial price increase.
Bullish theory: rising raw materials increase business costs
The primary reason for the rise in household prices this time is the rise in raw material prices. According to an industry insider, the prices of household raw materials have risen almost every year in recent years, but this increase is slow. Home furnishing companies can reduce costs and ease pressure by strengthening management and reducing intermediate links. However, during the period from October to December 2016, the price of raw materials generally rose by more than 10%. This increase has made many companies unable to afford it.
Another important reason for the rise in household prices is that under strict environmental protection requirements, the production costs of enterprises continue to increase. Taking sponge as an example, affected by factors such as increased environmental protection requirements and soaring foreign demand, after September 1, 2016, the raw material prices of sponge upstream enterprises continued to rise, and the price of sponge raw material polyether polyol rose per ton. Nearly 4,000 yuan. In addition, after the state rectified the chemical pollution enterprises, a large number of sponge upstream chemical companies that were not up to standard were required to be rectified or even closed. The supply of sponges was so tight that there was a shortage of supply, which also led to an increase in prices.
In addition to sponges, the packaging industry faces similar problems. Under the strict environmental protection requirements, packaging plants that do not meet environmental protection standards have closed down and stopped production, which has almost doubled the price of household packaging cartons. When the supply is most tense, even if the home business is willing to pay a high price, it can not buy the packaging box, thus affecting the packaging and transportation process of the home. For high-end homes, the change in currency exchange rate has led to an increase in the cost of imported timber, coupled with the increase in the cost of importing containers, and ultimately the company has to increase the market price of the products.
Non-growth theory: the market lacks a price increase environment
Judging from the above situation, the rumors of home price hikes seem to be more reliable, but some insiders said that although the price increase is a high probability event, the increase will not be too large. The reason for this is because whether the price increase is related to the overall situation of the home industry.
The reporter learned that the home furnishing industry has not experienced explosive growth in the past year. Not only that, the market has even been in a "cold winter" and "cold" state. According to the BHI index released by China Building Materials Circulation Association, from January to November 2016, there were 6 months of rising household products, but most of them were in a slight increase, warming up, and seasonal warming. The other five months of sales were The decline, data analysis and even the use of "into the winter" and "low innovation" and other words. It can be said that the entire home building materials industry has been shrouded in a sluggish atmosphere throughout the year. In 2017, with the country's over-regulation of real estate regulation, the prosperity of the home furnishing industry will also be affected. Therefore, some insiders believe that in this context, the price of household products is unlikely to rise sharply.
Looking at the Golden Week of National Day 2016, it is supposed to be the peak season for the home market, but the actual situation has not experienced explosive growth, which makes the “home circle†people come to the conclusion that “the home store will encounter the cold winter againâ€. After this, the home market has set off a wave of price hikes, but the double 11 that followed has delayed the implementation of price increases. According to this, the industry expects that since the Spring Festival is the peak season for decoration, the overall promotion of the market will inevitably increase. Even if it is generally called "up", the actual implementation time may be postponed. In summary, the home market itself does not have a large price increase environment. Another industry analysts believe that before the Spring Festival, the home, building materials, decoration market will have a "price increase", in addition to the objective factors such as rising costs, it does not rule out the illusion of some companies to increase sales.
If you don’t rise, look at the market after the Spring Festival
Will the price of household products rise in the end? Some industry insiders believe that it is too early to make a conclusion, and you can get a glimpse of the market situation after the Spring Festival. First of all, the price of household products usually rises slowly by 3%-5% every one or two years. As the cost of raw materials for production companies rises, the price of finished products will rise. This is also a normal phenomenon. The so-called rising water is the reason. From the current situation, although the price increase of households is beginning to appear, but because of the inventory as a buffer, it has not caused large-scale fluctuations, and the increase will be controlled within the range acceptable to dealers and consumers. If the pressure of continued upwards continues to increase, then the China International Home Furnishing Expo in March 2017 will be a node, and the company will adjust the price when launching new products.
From another point of view, even if the company raises the price, it is not necessarily reflected in the retail side immediately, so the price of household products suddenly rises after the Spring Festival is unlikely, for two reasons. First, because the sales outlets have certain autonomy over the price of the products, the retailers will gradually increase the retail price or temporarily increase the retail price of some products according to their own business conditions and local market conditions to adapt to the market; on the other hand, some retailers before the Spring Festival Already stocked for the peak season promotion, the price of this part of the product generally does not increase a lot, and it takes some time to consume these products after the Spring Festival.
For consumers, to avoid the impact of rising home prices, it is important to choose the timing of the purchase. Every spring is the peak season for decoration. In addition, if companies want to launch new products, they must go to stocks as much as possible. Therefore, the promotion is the strongest at this time of the year. Consumers can purchase at this time and can find new products with higher cost performance, thus avoiding new products. The overall price rose after the launch.
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